Reflections on MLB Prognostication

Over the next 24 hours, we're expected to get almost a foot of snow around here. So, needless to say, we are housebound for the next couple of days. As I stare out at our snowy front yard, I'm comforted by the fact that spring is so near. To gear myself up, I'm thinking a lot about baseball season, and I'm getting pretty excited about the Reds' chances. Since I'm bored sitting around, I thought I'd post my MLB predictions for this season.

NL East - Atlanta Braves
I know that the buzz is surrounding the Phillies-Mets rivalry and Santana's arrival in the Senior Circuit. But, I think that both of those teams have significant holes that will prove to be fatal this season. The Phillies have no rotation depth behind Hamels, and their new closer Brad Lidge got injured the first day of spring camp. They'll certainly score 800 runs again, but they'll give up 750. Likewise, behind Santana the Mets don't have many proven starters. Pedro will show flashes of his old self but will not top 100 innings this season. Maine and Perez will not perform up to the level they showed last year. Atlanta will dominate starting pitching this year with Smotlz, Glavine, Hudson, and company. They also have the young position players poised to make a huge impact this year.

NL Central - Cincinnati Reds
I'm sure I'll be accused of being the partisan optimist, but when the Reds make the playoffs this year, I want there to be documentation that I called it. The only reason I think this is a solid pick is because they're in a very weak division. Houston will falter because of bullpen and rotation concerns, the Cubs have some unproven position players they're hinging their season on (Pie and Fukudome) and the Brewers are a weaker team this year. The Reds though have added to their big weakness from last year: the bullpen. They have two solid starters at the top of the rotation in Harang and Arroyo, and they added Josh Fogg to bring some veteran stability to the center. The key for the Reds this year is to have some breakout years from some of their young guys. Look for Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Encarnacion to come up big this year. That'll put the Reds over the top, and they'll only need 88 wins to do it.

NL West - Arizona Diamondbacks
This division is probably the strongest in the National League, and therefore the hardest to call. The D-Backs, Dodgers, and Padres have all made significant additions, and the Rockies should also compete again this season. The big question across the division is lack of offense. The Dodgers probably have the edge in that category with Kent and Martin. But, I chose Arizona because I think Randy Johnson is going to have a comeback year, and add him in between Webb and Haren and you have a rotation good as any in baseball. But, it could just as easily be any of the other three I mentioned also.

NL Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers

AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
This pick is bound to get some hoots and hollers. But, I'm going to go out on a limb. I strongly believe that the Reds Sox are overrated this year, and they have some serious questions facing their rotation. Beckett is as good as any pitcher out there, but I think we're going to see a big sophomore slump from Dice-K. The Yankees will undoubtedly score close to 1000 runs again but their pitching will once again be their down fall. With that said, look for the Blue Jays to be the dark horse this year. They have a great one-two punch in their rotation (Halladay and Burnett) and they'll have their closer back this year. It'll be a three way race for the division through the end, but I think the Jays will come out on top.

AL Central - Cleveland Indians
This is going to be a fun division. The Tiger made some huge improvements that upgrade an already potent offense. Their rotation and bullpen are still big questions, but they'll score the most runs in the majors this year. But, I think that the Indians will slightly edge out the Tigers because they have more depth in the rotation (although I doubt Carmona will pitch like last year) and a far better bullpen. Regardless the 19 games these two teams play against each other will be full of fireworks.

AL West - Seattle Mariners
This is the division that I know least about, but with the addition of Erik Bedard, the Mariners have made some significant improvements. The Angels will chase Seattle all season but I think that they'll falter in September.

AL Wild Card - Detroit Tigers
I pick the Tigers only because the AL Central is a two team division where as the East is a three team division. I think that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Jays will beat on each all season, and the Tigers will end up with the better record.

Cleveland Indians beat the Atlanta Braves in 6 games for the 2008 World Series title.